Scandal isolates Cunningham

San Diego congressman's alleged dealings with a defense contractor could mean trouble for all Republicans.
By George E. Condon Jr.
Copley News Service

WASHINGTON -- Rep. Randy Cunningham's political woes are echoing far beyond the boundaries of his north San Diego County district. Only 25 days after the first allegation exploded, the veteran congressman already has emerged as a powerful symbol of what Democrats hope to portray as a Republican congressional leadership grown arrogant and too cozy with big money contributors.

The first public sign of that came Wednesday when he was one of five scandal-tainted Republicans to be featured in full-page newspaper ads run by the Democratic congressional campaign committee. But behind the scenes, Cunningham is a frequent topic of discussion by strategists from both parties trying to assess his vulnerability in the 2006 elections and whether he is tainting other Republicans.

"People are waiting to see when he gets out -- not if he gets out, but when he gets out," said Stuart Rothenberg, an independent analyst who closely monitors House elections.

"This is a lot more than innuendo and accusations. This is serious stuff," he said. "And while, officially, his party is behind him here in Washington, there is a significant sense that this is big trouble."

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics who has written extensively on political scandals, said this one is playing out as most scandals do except Cunningham has not been able to fall back on a base that refuses to believe the allegations.

"For many Republicans, the attitude is why take a chance?" he said. "That's a district that is nearly guaranteed to be Republican. They can get rid of Cunningham and keep the seat. Then they don't have to answer any more embarrassing questions."

There have been many such questions and only rare occasions for smiling in these last 25 days for Cunningham. One of the few came Tuesday when supporters serenaded him at the Escondido Rotary Club meeting with a fresh version of "Anchors Aweigh."

But that appearance did not break Cunningham's isolation from the tough questions facing him in Washington or the changed political realities back home.

Since the first story broke June 12, he has canceled several events and has answered none of the dozens of questions arising from his many financial dealings with developers, contractors and political contributors involving two houses, two boats and two mortgages.

For Cunningham, life is dominated by conferences with his lawyers as today's legal concerns outweigh next year's political challenges.

Several of his fellow Republicans have paid tribute to his past service as a Navy fighter pilot in Vietnam. But House Majority Leader Tom DeLay of Texas is one of the few to go beyond that to lavish praise on Cunningham and dismiss the questions. DeLay, of course, has good reason to praise Cunningham -- the San Diegan contributed $5,000 to the fund set up to defend DeLay against allegations he had faced.

There are Republicans back home, though, who don't want others to pile on the embattled congressman until they get more answers. John M. Dadian, a longtime Republican political consultant and lobbyist, ruefully acknowledged that he had heard from many of them when he recently declared of Cunningham "he's dead."

"I wouldn't say that again," he joked. Instead, choosing his words more carefully, he said, "Clearly, these are serious allegations and everybody is not only waiting for the congressman to address them, but hoping against hope that he can address them to their satisfaction."

He added, "This is bad and if it is as bad as it appears on the surface, there is no excuse for it. However, people cannot wipe out more than 30 years of public service, especially a guy who puts his life on the line for his country."

Analysts in Washington are less cautious.

"I don't think Cunningham could be elected in that district anymore," said Charles Cook, a veteran independent analyst who studies House races. "You can make the case that almost any other Republican could, but not Cunningham."

Key to understanding how badly Cunningham has been wounded, Cook said, is to appreciate how different this is from most congressional scandals. "The typical scandal involving a House member is maybe one punch or two. But this has been a steady drumbeat. ... It has just been a relentless bang, bang, bang coming at him from every direction.

"This has been going on for a month and it's not going away."

Sabato noted that Cunningham has a year to recover. But he said the constant flow of revelations is likely fatal. "The drip, drip, drip will kill an elected official every time," he said.

Also potentially lethal for Cunningham, he said, are the pictures of agents raiding his home last week -- "Just unprecedented," he said -- and the fact that the basic facts are so easily understandable. Nobody needs a CPA to understand the allegation that a defense contractor overpaid for Cunningham's house to increase the congressman's take by $700,000 or to have the same contractor name a yacht after him.

"It's so obvious, so incredibly obvious and so thoroughly revolting," said Sabato.

Dadian said the boat was particularly damaging. "Some of the allegations are quite serious," he said. "But what people really wince at was the naming of the boat. That seemed a little brazen. Having a boat named after you -- that just doesn't pass the smell test to the man on the street."

Democrats hope to play on that reaction and link Cunningham to other embattled Republicans. "This is a story line," said Cook, "that Democrats are trying to construct that is similar to the story line that Newt Gingrich constructed for Republicans in 1994 -- arrogant, out of touch, possibly corrupt, abuse of power."

Sabato added that this "may not work for them, but one thing the Democrats have going in their favor is that people are always willing to believe it."